2010 Florida State Seminoles: Florida State @ Virginia

Once a season comes a game that most fans and even some coaches underestimate. Perhaps it's because a lesser opponent has improved quietly. Perhaps it's because a bigger game overshadows the smaller opponent. Perhaps it's just simple oversight. Whatever it is, many teams are handed unexpected losses each year. Such a loss could happen for the Florida State Seminoles this weekend if they aren't careful to pay attention to an improved Virginia Cavalier team.

At 3–1, the Seminoles are looking for one final win at Virginia before heading south to Miami to face the rival Hurricanes. But before the Noles look ahead to the Miami game, they should take seriously the game against the Cavaliers this weekend.

Virginia isn't traditionally recognized as a powerhouse ACC football team. In fact, the Cavaliers recorded just three overall wins last season (two in the ACC), finishing last in the ACC's Coastal Division. Yet, with a 2–1 record this season and a close loss to No. 16 USC, the Cavaliers are showing signs of improvement.

Consider how each aspect of the Cavaliers' team ranks among FBS teams:

Passing yards—25th overall (271.3/game)

Rushing yards—59th overall (160/game)

Points scored—45th overall (32/game)

Points allowed—7th overall (12.3/game)

Now consider how the Seminoles rank in each category:

Passing yards—45th overall (237.8/game)

Rushing yards—32nd overall (196.8/game)

Points scored—33rd overall (35.3/game)

Points allowed—26th overall (15.8/game)

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More than last year's records indicate, this game will be a fairly even match between two rebuilding teams.

The big news this week is that Florida State will be without starting defensive tackle Jacobbi McDaniel (elbow) and starting offensive tackle Andrew Datko (shoulder), while running back Ty Jones will see very limited time if he plays at all (ankle sprain). The offensive-line injury could give Virginia an advantage in rushing Seminole quarterback Christian Ponder.

Saturday's meeting will be a battle of the defenses. While the Cavaliers are averaging 160 rushing yards a game, the Seminole run defense is allowing just 82 rushing yards per game and has allowed only one team to rush for over 100 yards.

On the other side, the Cavaliers' defense has allowed just three passing touchdowns so far this season while forcing three interceptions and one fumble through three games. The Cavaliers are outscoring opponents by nearly 20 points per game on average.

Ponder is continuing his recovery from an injury sustained against Oklahoma and agitated against BYU. While he posted his best performance of the year last weekend against Wake Forest (24 of 37, 243 yards, 2 TD), he also showed some weaknesses through wobbly throws, overthrows, and two fumbles. If the Noles hope to secure their first road win at Virginia, Ponder must step up and have another solid performance while gaining help from his receivers, who must make easy catches and give nothing away to Virginia's defense. Also look for the Noles' running game to exceed the 3.3 yards-per-carry average the Virginia run defense is allowing so far this year.

This weekend's game is a lot more important than some Seminole fans acknowledge. If FSU does not beat Virginia, it has little hope of representing the Atlantic Division in the ACC Championship Game this December. If they do win, they stand in good position going into Miami the next weekend.

Florida State Seminoles @ Virginia Cavaliers Football Preview